Who To Bet On For The 2023 Men’s Basketball National Championship Game
By: Vincent Tranghese
UConn Huskies. San Diego State Aztecs. This March has been one for the ages and it all comes to a close tonight. UConn will look to bring home its 5th title in program history, while San Diego State looks to bring home its first-ever, as this is its first season making it past the Sweet Sixteen.
Not many bet people on either of these teams getting this far, specifically Sand Diego State. The Aztecs’ odds to win it all at the start of the tournament were a staggering +10000. The Huskies opened at a more favorable, but still not top-of-the-line, +2500. As it currently stands, UConn is a 7.5-point favorite and the over/under is at 132.5. If you are new to betting, check out our Sports Betting 101: Rookie’s Guide blog for more information on getting started.
The Case For UConn
UConn has been without a doubt, the best team in college basketball over the last three weeks. The Huskies started their tournament run with a 24-point win over 13-seed Iona. They followed it up with a 15-point win over 5-seed Saint Mary’s, a 23-point win over 8-seed Arkansas, a ridiculous 28-point win over 3-seed Gonzaga, and most recently a 13-point win over Miami in the Final Four. UConn was the favorite in every game and covered the spread with ease in them all.
This is the second biggest margin UConn has been given, the only bigger one was in the opening round against Iona when they were 9-point favorites. It is also worth noting that UConn has consistently played better competition throughout the tournament than San Diego State. Because of that, their utter dominance in this tournament has everyone looking their way. Their defense has been excellent, giving up under 60 points per game, while their offense has been on an absolute rampage, scoring at least 70 points in every game. If the Huskies are able to get out to a large lead early, it is very likely that they dance their way to victory.
The Case For Sand Diego State
Don’t fall asleep on the Aztecs just yet. San Diego State has pulled off some very close wins and isn’t looking to finish second. They started off the tournament with a 6-point win over 12-seed Charleston, followed by a 23-point win over 13-seed Furman. They then upset 1-seed Alabama, who had the second-best pre-tournament odds, by 7 in the Sweet Sixteen before back-to-back 1-point wins over Creighton in the Elite Eight and FAU in the Final Four.
San Diego State has been the underdog before this March, with their biggest margin being +6.5-points to Alabama. The Aztecs’ elite defense is the best shot they have at beating a team as good as UConn. Their defense has given up 60 points per game this tournament compared to their offense scoring 67.6 per. If the Aztecs are able to keep the game within arms reach the whole time, they have what it takes to close out the game and pull off an upset.
My Pick
UConn has been rolling, and it will be very difficult to pick against them. So I won’t. The Huskies’ relentless defense, coupled with their consistent offense will guide them to their fifth title in program history. However, San Diego State will not go down easily. Their ability to play good defense and keep games close will allow them to cover the spread. Both teams’ elite ability to defend will cause some dry offensive possessions in the game, leading to a game that will have under 132.5 total points. Make sure to tune into the game tonight at 9:20 p.m. ET on CBS to watch how it all goes down.
Straight Up Pick: UConn
Spread Pick: San Diego State covers +7.5
Over/Under: Under 132.5
